A Laboratory Perspective on the Gutenberg‐Richter and Characteristic Earthquake Models

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the standard method used for designing earthquake-resistant infrastructure. In recent years, several unexpected and destructive earthquakes have sparked criticism of PSHA methodology. The seismological part problem true frequency-magnitude distribution regional seismicity. Two major models exist, Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) Characteristic Earthquake (CE) model, but it difficult to choose between them. That because instrumental, historical, paleoseimological data available are limited in many regions interest. Here, we demonstrate how a friction experiment on aggregates glass beads can produce both regular (CE equivalent) irregular (G-R stick-slip. Using new rotary shear apparatus produced analyzed large catalogs acoustic emission (AE) events related distributions AE sizes, interevent times, distances were found be sensitive particle size applied normal stress, and, lesser degree, stiffness loading apparatus. More importantly, system spontaneously switched behavior short periods time. context PSHA, if faults able switch as our experimental does, then justifying choice either CE or G-R model impossible based existing observations.